-Blank NEWS Online (NIGERIA) –By Albert OGRAKA:
A renowned Delta State based Biometrician Geneticist and member of International Biometrician Geneticist Convention (MIBGC), Olisemeka Isiekwe PhD, has predicted that Covid-19 flu infections, would rise, hitting a 3,000 high in May.
He also said that, “The trend line equation of treated patients shows that by 25th of May, a thousand (1,000) patients would have been treated. Similarly, about 150 patients would die by same date.”
Dr. Isiekwe, who applied some models to ascertain the transmission and fatality rates of the spread in Nigeria, revealed that the patterns of transmission of Covid-19 in the country has proven that 3,000 new cases are expected by May, 25, 2020.
In a statement made exclusively available to Blank NEWS Online, the Biometrician Geneticist, said that recent government’s effort to flatten the transmission curve have been unsuccessful.
He noted that although the government was lackadaisical to act at the onset, the governed also were skeptical of the authenticity of the malaise because they were full of disbelief.
According to Dr. Isiekwe, “The worse has been the level of disbelief within the 200 million public until what seemed to be the truth started to emerge. Persons are now seeing known loved ones being infected.”
He regretted that Nigeria has gone beyond the incubation period and reached the community transmission level.
“Unfortunately, the transmission level has passed the incubation period. It has reached the community transmission level. The curve is no so vertically steeped that a 100% previous day infection is gradually becoming real.”
While describing Nigeria’s health personnel as best in Africa, despite the inadequate infrastructure, he warned government that the intermittent relaxation of the lockdown is a dangerous trend in fighting the global pandemic.
PATTERNS OF TRANSMISSION OF COVID-19 IN NIGERIA NOW KNOWN, AS 3000 NEW CASES ARE EXPECTED BY 25TH MAY 2020.
When the world was taken aback by Covid-19 flu infections in early 2020, different models where postulated on its transmission and fatality.
The transmission of 2n=y weekly model and the 3% fatality rates where the most common. Till now, the models are in great use for the management of the disease and the outcomes.
In Nigeria, the attempts of the government have been to flatten the transmission curve without success. The rate of failure to achieve this has been a double pronged issue. Whereas the government was not quick to act at the onset, the governed where skeptical of the authenticity of the malaise and full of disbelief. The worse has been the level of disbelieve within the 200 million public until what seemed to be the truth started to emerge. Persons are now seeing known loved ones being infected.
Unfortunately, the transmission level has passed the incubation period. It has reached the community transmission level. The curve is now so vertically steeped that a 100% previous day infection is gradually becoming real.
Y= 0,498×2-9.514x or y = 0.017×2.448 both with R-square values of 0.933 and 0.783 respectively. Both yield an over 80 multipliers thus capable of producing about 2000 new cases in 25 days to come. With a very high R=Square value accordingly, the new figures could exceed 3000 by the 25th of May.
This result is real as Nigeria has entered the community transmission phase of Covid-19 spread. The situation in Kano state currently will worsen the whole situation in Nigeria.
Similar trend line is also noticed with the level of treatment of Covid-19 patients in Nigeria. This shows that it is not all grim after all. The tenacity of purpose of Nigeria’s health personnel amidst low level infrastructure is better than those of other African countries. Nigeria’s treatment level is quite higher than the rest.
The trend line equation of treated patients shows that by 25th of May, a thousand (1000) patients would have been treated. Similarly, about 150 patients would die by same date.
The management of Covid-19 in Nigeria should be taken seriously to avoid the Spanish and the Italian experience. Aside the normal hygienic campaign, more effort should be geared towards more Nigerians believing on the existence of the disease. Most people are still at the level of disbelieve and they are more dangerous than the infected.
Better lockdown should be established nationwide. The idea of intermittent relaxation of the lockdown is a dangerous trend and very inimical to the growth of the infection.
The establishment of more molecular laboratories should immediately be looked into. The infrastructure in Nigeria is very inadequate. With just 15 centres for over 200million people is a difficult omen.
PPE for our medics should be improved just like the need for better machines and employment of more hands.
Olisemeka Isiekwe PhD.,
Member International Biometrician Geneticist Convention (MIBGC)